13
Sep
06

Week 3 Lineup

What may be the most competitive slate top to bottom of the year…enjoy. Note: KU is in the Glass Bowl Friday night — while I am on a plane — so I will need this pick prior to kick-off. Same, pre-CGD timeline for the other four.

  • KU (+4) at Toledo — Friday night game — will need this pick prior to kick-off
  • Tech (-1.5) at TCU
  • Texas (-32) at Rice
  • Miami at Louisville (-4)
  • Wildcard: LSU at Auburn (-3)
KU (+4) at Toledo

Two storylines in Friday’s battle in the Glass Bowl: (1) a KU pass defensive that was shredded against the Warhawks last week faces a team with that will air it out all night and (2) KU’s road woes – Mangino has notched a single road vicotry per year over the last three seasons – not the mark of at $1.5M per year contract. Toledo, while 0-2 on the season, lost in triple overtime in Ames – definitely more respectable than a missed extra point victor against Monroe. So then why am I bullish on the Hawks chances to the cover and reach the half-way mark of their second bowl appearance…for the following reasons: John Cornish is putting up solid numbers in the running game – he will get his One of the best cover corners in the Big 12, Talib, is coming off a two game suspension and the ultra conservative defensive package executed the past two weeks will be put to bed. I am anticipating more pressure on Cochran (QB) and a decent secondary will lead to another inconsistent performance. The Rockets have no running game to speak of which it means it is open season on the young and aggressive front seven of KU. Vegas likes the Hawks as well. The line opened with Toledo a -51⁄2, which has been freefalling since Sunday.

KU picks up it obligatory road win for the season and covers.

Tech (-1.5) at TCU

Again, kudos to the head pirate for agreeing to this year’s schedule knowing his field general would be a frosh. I’m confident Tech will be a better team for it; both late in this season and for years to come. But we are not talking about November and we are not taking about 2007…the focus is on the “nothing less than the BCS” mantra of Texas Tech and how they perform in Week 3. The Red Raider nation has to be salivating at the 280+ yards the mighty Bears put up on TCU last week….only to be grounded back into reality when the consider their front seven wasn’t able to control the line of scrimmage in El Paso.

I’m really torn on this one as TCU has a solid running attack and will control the clock throughout the game. If Tech drops this one everyone is Lubbock will pull a Mack and blame the new clock rule – which may be the lamest excuse of all time. What is with the whining from coaches this season – exhibit A: Mack and his clock issues, exhibit B Chuck Amato and his bitching about Akron’s non-qualifiers – wait I am way off topic. As much as I want to go with the Horned Frogs in Amon Carter my gut tells me they are short a few athletes on the defensive side to stay with Tech in the fourth quarter. Tech covers.

Texas (-32) at Rice

Yawn….with so many great games this week we need a game like this to keep us from imploding. McCoy will have a solid showing and God-forbid if Snead doesn’t get his numbers as well. Corso…take it easy on Colt as the loss does not rest solely on his shoulders. I’ll leave the Applewhite commentary to Julie and Mark but will give him kudos for keeping the 0-2 Owls competitive this season. While the rest of the state is glued to the score coming out of Ft. Worth in Houston the Horns cover

Miami at Louisville (-4)

On a Saturday packed with exciting match-ups, the Cane and Cards have to be the main event. Robert relishes the 3 point loss in Miami in 2004 as much as a second tier bowl victory that same year. A Louisville victory on Saturday sets the table for the game with West Virginia which will have BCS and possible national championship implications. The game is in the Hut, the Cards feel they deserve more respect and the Canes are under fire. It’s the country’s most athletic defense lining up against a Louisville team missing one of its biggest offensive weapons.

I don’t see this week’s featured game becoming a sleeper like the last two (FSUvUM and TexasvOSU) if for no other reason than both have been practicing for over a month and have two games to work out the kinks. Brohm’s ACL looks to be a distant memory and will be able to put up some points as the game wears on. Louisville’s D is athletic but its deficiencies in the secondary are offset by the maturation process of Wright. I am going with it being a close one..Canes cover

Wildcard – LSU at Auburn (-3)

I’ve been clear from the onset of this season…USC will face either Auburn or West Virginia for the national championship. And where Louisville v Miami set’s the table in the Big East, this week’s wildcard sets the table in the SEC. Strike the earlier statement, this is THE game of the week. I am high on Auburn as they are athletic and extremely well coached on both sides of the ball. LSU is athletic but I am not sold on Miles running at the helm. I like Auburn’s defensive pressure and the fact they are playing at home…War Eagles cover.

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13 Responses to “Week 3 Lineup”


  1. 1 RObert
    September 13, 2006 at 8:34 am

    Commish, if you add/subtract .5 point from the lines that don’t have a .5 point already, we can insure that there will be no pushes… (a game can’t end with someone winning or losing by 3.5 for example…)

    IE… KU (+4.5), UT (-32.5), UL (-4.5), Auburn (-3.5)… If not, we could conceivably have 4 pushes this week and what fun would that be…???

  2. 2 brentbaker
    September 13, 2006 at 11:09 am

    A push isn’t the end of the world and actually speaks to the odds maker’s accuracy. Let’s leave it as is.

  3. 3 RObert
    September 14, 2006 at 11:40 am

    QUOTE: RObert won’t find himself half-drunk in the end zone this year as the Card will come up short but will find solace in celebratory beverage as the Card cover.

    B2, you say the Cards will come up short, yet cover… They are the favorite, so if they come up short, they can’t cover… Just need some clrification so that we don’t have a whole “hanging chad” repeat from 2000…

  4. 4 RObert
    September 14, 2006 at 11:56 am

    Let me get these in since I have visitors coming in town for the game and I’m not sure if I’ll have much PC contact before the games…

    KU barely beats slugs at home; I don’t see them going into MAC country and playing much better… I’ll take the Mudhens (or whatever the Toledo mascot is) to cover the 4…

    TCU goes 2-0 vs the Big 12 by beating pretenders TT at home and silences all those CUSA critics… TCU is undefeated and at home and ranked 20th… And they are getting a 1.5 points… Something sounds fishy in that line… Take the home dog whenever possible… TCU all the way.

    I guess Colt can go back to impressing people with his play against sub-par teams… They take out the frustration of getting ass-whipped at home by OSU in front of their wine and cheese eating crowd who were about as loud as Helen Keller snoring last week… The game was over at the half… This one will be too… Texas wins big and covers…

    How UL is a 4 point favorite, I’ll never know… Miami lost a close one to FSU and UL beat up a couple patsies… Sure Michael Bush is out for the year, but so is UL’s best DB Rod Council and best DL Wayne Grady (all three have broken twigs)… Miami is 7-2 under Coker as a road dog (remember last year vs #2 Va Tech in Blacksburg)… Everyone had Va Tech in the championship game until Miami lit them up 27-7 (and it wasn’t even that close)… I say a FG either way wins it (it was 41-38 last time these two played) so I’ll take Miami to cover the 4 and pray for a close win by the Cards… (3-0 sounds good right about now)…

    I personally think LSU is way overrated… The real SEC matchup this weekend is Tenn/Florida… That being said, Auburn is tough at home and I see them winning this one pretty easily… Auburn covers and they will probably face Florida in the SEC title game in a couple months…

    Enjoy the festivities this weekend and look for me at the Oven on TV… I’ll be the one without wine and cheese.

  5. 5 brentbaker
    September 14, 2006 at 1:31 pm

    thanks RObert….I’ll make the correction. I was typing on the bus and misread the line I originally entered.

  6. 6 Blaine Baker
    September 15, 2006 at 2:01 am

    Fellow FBBers:

    I’m writing to you late in the evening from Las Vegas. So, take comfort in my coming from a very rational frame of mind as I’m sure you all will take comfort in the following having no influence from the bright lights and multiple libations.

    Allow my temporary state of being bullet proof to make an argument. Our Commish claims there is nothing to the clock rule argument. However, the new clock rules erase a key dramatic staple of all of football – the excitement of the 2 minute drill. For example, last week’s Miami vs. FSU. Under last year’s rule, Miami would have had time to sustain a final drive and could have changed the entire outcome of the game. However, they never had the time to really do much in their final series. This year, no team can really do much inside two minutes – and the two minute drill in years past resulted in very exciting football.

    End of the day, regarding wins and losses, our Commish is correct in terms of everyone is playing within the same rules. I guess you have to make adjustments – as every team should adjust – so should the collegiate football fans. We’ll just have to expect most outcomes this year will be decided outside of the game’s final two minutes.

    KU (+4) at Toledo
    I don’t feel that Toledo can beat Mangino w/ a one dimensional attack. After the Jayhawks survived a poor performance last week, I’m sure the big 1.5 million dollar man will have his birds focused and ready. I’ll go with the Yardbirds to cover.

    Tech (-1.5) at TCU
    I once met Lou Holtz. (I have a point.) Lou Holtz spoke at a PSS (former employer) National Sales Meeting when PSS rented out the entire MGM theme park in Orlando. As they all are, he’s was the surprise featured speaker. Even more unexpected, he agreed to speak during the South Carolina Gamecock football season. He stated it was the first time he ever engaged a speaking engagement during a football season as a head football coach. Despite being just over 5 ft tall, having a lisp and being self proclaimed – shy – he had the entire sales force captivated. He’s a tremendously inspirational public speaker.

    And now, watching ESPN, Lou Holtz just took TCU and Jeff Ballard’s 10 game winning streak to beat Tech. How can I go against someone so influential and who happens to be the name sake of my nephew? Holtz was the inspiration that led to the naming of J-Lou, right? Is there another Lou to speak of?

    Further, I need to call Tech and get my money back. I’ve never been taught to understand how a team (TCU) can be ranked higher their opponent, play at home, and be picked to lose. Tech enters another week where a team considers them their biggest challenge of all of their scheduled games. TCU can answer a lot of questions about the validity of their program with a win on Saturday. Further, history has taught me to never count on Tech playing to their potential any given week – especially outside of Lubbock.

    Regardless and going against my better judgment, the opinion of Lou Holtz, and w/o disregard of all family members named Lou, I will make this prediction:

    Prediction? Ahhhh yes, Prediction…..

    Texas Tech will beat the Frogs by two + touchdowns. …..PAIN

    Texas (-32) at Rice
    Whatever. Texas covers.

    Miami at Louisville (-4)
    I like Pizza Hut. I like RObert. I do not like the Cards vs. the Caines. In my humble opinion, Miami was a better team the FSU (see aforementioned clock rule discussion). Caines win and therefore – cover.

    Wildcard: LSU at Auburn (-3)
    GO TIGERS!! Does that help? Sorry, bad joke. I took the BC Eagles last week on an emotional pick – so naturally I should do the same for this week’s wildcard. However, I’m torn. Living in Houston, we’ve come to know many LSU fanatics – and I mean crazy fanatics. Last year, I was given the privilege to ride on Endymion (Mardigras float) with a ton of LSU faithful. However, I’m taking the Auburn Tigers in honor of Clint Bennett – Auburn alumnus who was my first sales leader for PSS – who led me to meet Lou Holtz – and since my future nephew’s name is Louis – well, you can’t get more emotional than that.

    In the immortal words of RObert – Out.

  7. 7 Julie
    September 15, 2006 at 8:35 am

    Bones,
    That was bar none your best entry to date. I suggest you submit all FBB picks from Vegas (or Lu’vulle) with no fewer than 5 bourbons in your system!
    JuJu

  8. 8 Julie
    September 15, 2006 at 9:55 am

    I know I am lame, but I unfortunately have no time for the proper analysis this week and have to get my picks in before we head off the beautiful Houston, Texas tonight! (A valuable lesson I will teach Jude from “Little Miss Sunshine”…if you don’t think you can win, then don’t compete at all). KU, Tech, Texas, Miami and Auburn cover.

  9. 9 brentbaker
    September 15, 2006 at 11:59 am

    Good point on the 2 min drill…I guess the NFL has abandoned their prep for the last two minutes all together. Come to think of it….there have never been any game or conference championship or Super Bowl ending drives that occurred inside of two mins.

    Aside from that…excellent analysis. You have dutdone yourself yet again.

    And wife…there is always idle plane time and ample time in the AM to kick out some of your insightful analysis

  10. 10 markscholz
    September 15, 2006 at 3:23 pm

    In a hurry here – so, let me just get in my Kansas pick. More to come tomorrow. The Jay Hawks really let me down last week, but as Colt McCoy says, eveyone can have a bad game. I’m going with KU to bounc back in a big way. The Flying Mangino’s cover.

  11. 11 AFPs
    September 15, 2006 at 8:19 pm

    Kansas by 4. Huh, guess you really blew that one, Bake. Kansas J-holes do it again.

  12. 12 markscholz
    September 16, 2006 at 5:09 am

    “Katie bar the door”. I really mean that, I want my wife, Kate and two beautiful little girls to leave the house Saturday and bar the door shut. Why? So, I can watch the best freaking weekend of College Football in recent history.

    Know what? – I LOVE Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach – he’s a hoot. EVERY Big 12 coach dislikes the NCAA’s new clock rules to speed up the game. But, NOBODY dislikes them more colorfully than Leach. In the weekly Big 12 Conference call he noted for the 2nd straight week – Reiterating his claim that it’s “the stupidest rule to come out in a significantly long time” Leach added, “This thing’s insane and you know it’s insane”. “I haven’t heard any good reasons to do it,” he said. There are all these little dabble-around reasons: ‘Some players might get tired.’ Well, if they do, get up and leave. I’ve never heard of a fan anywhere suggest the game’s too long.” He was just getting started. He then proposed what he called “such a great idea.” “I think they ought to limit both teams to 20 plays,” he said. “Then they can really get the games over quickly and then everybody can go out and tailgate and the players and coaches can mingle with the fans and really share in the game-day type of activity.” WOW – it’s another leach classic quote – he’s a funny man. Brent and I had a little banter about the new clock rules on the phone – I don’t mind them, except in the last 5 minutes of each half, the clock should stop, like last year. There’s NOTHING like a great comeback in College Football and the existing rules somewhat prohibit this.

    Tech (-1.5) at TCU
    All you need to know about Tech fans is the following:

    It’s priceless – Please do yourself a favor and paste this baby into your browser and enjoy! They’ll be singing this little song after Saturday’s game at TCU. TCU is a tough club, especially at Home. I pick TCU to win and cover.

    Texas (-32) at Rice
    Texas rolls and covers, even against future Texas Offensive Coordinator and Head Coach Major Applewhite. Expect 50,000 Longhorn fans in the 72,000 capacity Reliant Stadium in Houston.

    Miami at Louisville (-4)
    I really do like Lu-Vulle, but the Canes D is a little too much for the Cardinals. The Canes cover in what should be a fantastic game.

    Wildcard: LSU at Auburn (-3)
    Taking the War Eagles at Home. They cover and win.

  13. 13 RObert
    September 18, 2006 at 2:09 am

    A 4-1 weekend from yours truly and a huge win for the ‘ville… So what if the Bush/Brohm show is now the Stripling/Cantwell show… The Cards invade Manhattan, KS next week…


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